Russia’s Dangerous Escalation in Syria

Russia’s airstrikes in Syria cross a dangerous line in the Middle East that escalates the bloody conflict and risks bringing Russia into direct confrontation with the United States. This move by President Vladimir Putin complicates an already chaotic battlefield and will certainly make a political settlement even harder to achieve.

Mr. Putin’s claim that the primary motivation for the bombing is to fight and destroy terrorists, including the Islamic State, is dubious. It is more likely that the Russian leader’s main objective is to rescue President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, whose hold on power has weakened as the Syrian Army has lost ground not only to the Islamic State, which is trying to establish a caliphate in Syria and Iraq, but also to a coalition of insurgent groups that is opposed to the Islamic State.

Syria is Russia’s chief ally in the Middle East, and Mr. Putin has enabled Mr. Assad throughout the conflict. Mr. Putin could have prevented the turn to violence back in 2011 by persuading his ally not to attack peaceful antigovernment protesters.

Whether Russia will try to help Mr. Assad reclaim control over the entire country is unclear, but some American officials suspect the plans go beyond what Mr. Putin said on Wednesday would be “limited”airstrikes. In recent weeks, the Russians have poured tanks, aircraft and other heavy weapons into Syria. It makes sense to assume the worst, given Mr. Putin’s behavior in Ukraine, where he initially denied moving weapons and troops into the country, then annexed Crimea and continues to destabilize the eastern region.

President Obama appears to have been caught off guard by the bold move to reassert Russian influence in the Middle East, as Mr. Putin no doubt intended. Despite American-led airstrikes, the administration has no real strategy for Syria. There is no obvious Russian strategy either, except for bolstering Mr. Assad, whom Mr. Putin considers the key to stability but most of his brutalized citizens detest.

Mr. Putin may have the initiative now, but the risks for Russia, whose economy is suffering from Ukraine-related sanctions and falling oil prices, are real. Before launching the operation, the Russians did not try to work out a plan with the Americans to ensure their respective warplanes would not come in contact.

Military experts say that the Russian planes are old and could crash and that Russian weapons may not be precise enough to avoid extensive civilian casualties. Mr. Putin has legitimate concerns about foreign fighters returning home to Russia from Syria, but his new military operation could backfire and make Russia an even greater target of extremists.Continue reading the main story






The Americans rightly rejected a Russian warning after the airstrikes started to avoid Syrian airspace and halt their attacks on the Islamic State. Mr. Obama will have to work with America’s partners on a unified response to Russia’s moves and seek a way to end the war.

On Wednesday, Mr. Putin said he hoped that after the Russian intervention Mr. Assad would be open to compromise. But with Russia willing to intervene directly on his behalf, Mr. Assad may conclude he can stay in power indefinitely.